A "No" Vote - So what is next?

Scotland has voted to stay in the Union. In spite of all the polls which tended to suggest a "close run thing", it was "No" by a decent margin which one hopes will put the issue to bed for a generation. Why were the polls so far out? My instinct says that a large number of Scots keep themselves to themselves and probably were recorded as "undecided", or, in certain areas simply said what the pollsters expected to hear for fear of intimidation.

The three party leaders at Westminster offered a load of last minute bribes to Scotland should they stay in the Union, but these have got to be approved by Westminster and many MPs are unhappy that the English were not consulted as it would seem that they will undoubtedly carry any extra costs. And, of course, there remains the so-called "West Lothian" question with Scottish MPs being able to vote on English legislation, whilst English MPs are unable to vote on those same issues in Scotland, as they have been devolved to the Scottish Parliament.

It is clear that Westminster will now be forced to address this issue and there a number of solutions. Simply saying that Scottish MPs can't vote at Westminster on English issues could give major problems. What happens if country as a whole decided to elect a Labour government, but on English issues there was a Tory majority?

If the referendum has achieved one thing, it is that Westminster will have no option as to produce significant constitutional reforms. It seems doubtful that these will be introduced during the remains of this Parliament and I suspect we will have to wait until the next. Hopefully the parties will come forward with detailed proposals in their manifestos.

The next political event is of course the forthcoming by-elections, particularly at Clacton where the sitting MP changed his allegiance to UKIP and, unusually, called for a by-election, rather than simply hanging onto his seat. Let's hope he gets back with a huge majority as this will at last prove that UKIP is beginning to be a force in UK politics following the election of so many UKIP MEPs

Scottish Independence

Up to now, I have avoided getting involved in the debate about Scottish Independence. The English part of me suggests it is a good idea, because it is a step nearer English Independence and more likely to produce a right wing government at Westminster. The Traditional part of me (I no longer regard myself as British) feels that it would be a great pity to break up the Union. If I had a say in the matter, I would like to see separate parliaments for the four parts of Britain, each with identical powers, leaving Westminster as a National Government to deal with such matters as Foreign Policy, Defence, etc.

But that is not going to happen and over the recent days I have become steadily more appalled by the behaviour of the "yes" campaigners with the increasing violence and intimidation. As a result, I will now be pleased if the Scots vote "yes" as I feel they are no longer the type of people that I want to be associated with.

So I asked myself, why are the Scots behaving like this? Why do they take everything that Salmond says at face value? The conclusion that I reached was that it was partly because far too many of the well-educated Scots, who would listen to the arguments and might support a "No" vote, have left the country to find work and careers elsewhere. Those that are left are reluctant to speak out after seeing how others have been threatened by what we are assured (but I don't believe) is a tiny number of extremists from the Yes camp.

My son-in-law is Scottish, has a good degree, and working here in England. He is doing well and admits that he would never have got to his present position in Scotland, if indeed such a position exists. His sister, also well qualified, is working in London with a well known law firm. But the interesting thing is the number of cousins they have spread around the world in the so-called Anglosphere, most of whom are university graduates and have left Scotland to find a career elsewhere.

One also notes the large number of individuals of Scottish descent who are in public life in England; quite a few MPs for English constituencies come from Scotland as well as many senior businessmen and company directors. In some ways Scotland is beginning to look like France after the revolution when they slaughtered the Aristos. Scotland is not slaughtering anyone, but large numbers of the well educated are leaving with the result that many of those whom Scotland will need to lead the country have left long ago. There is no logical reason to believe this will change following independence, so is Scotland heading to a future where employment is largely manual work and call-centres?

But I fear this is also happening in England. Far too many poorly educated immigrants are causing the well educated with ambitions to ask whether this is the country in which to pursue their careers. Talking to my friends and acquaintances, I've discovered that we are amongst the small minority who do not have children or grandchildren who have emigrated. As with Scotland, these are people that the country can ill-afford to lose, mostly having a good university education or sought after skills. Just as I'm convinced Scotland will go down hill without these people, so will England if nothing is done.

The Election Results

I'm not too unhappy with the election results (Mrs EP translation - I'm quite pleased, but not over the moon).
The Scot Nats won a majority in the Scottish Parliament, The vote on AV was a resounding "No", the LibDems got their comeuppance, and the Tories, by and large maintained their status quo. My only disappointment was that none of the UKIP candidates were elected, but as, in practical terms, there is absolutely nothing that they could do about their aims even if elected to local councils, it doesn't alter their position.

Firstly the Scot Nats. If they hold a referendum on leaving the Union as promised, one suspects that they would get huge support from the English, notwithstanding the fact that we wouldn't get a vote. Down south we are fed up with the continual winging of the Scottish politicians, in spite of the fact that Scotland gets a higher per capita proportion of the UK budget and has proportionately more MPs. The only problem is that Cameron might decide to give them an even bigger cut of the budget in order to encourage them to stay. Nevertheless, I feel it will force our Parliament to address the issue, not only of representation at Westminster but also the anomaly whereby Scots MPs can vote on purely English matters often reversing the position that would be reached by English MPs alone.

The LibDems in my view came unstuck because up to now, they have managed to be "all things to all men".
You can do this in local government, it is unlikely that anyone would notice if you have a totally different policy in, say, Yorkshire than your policy in Suffolk or Dorset. It can be tailored for a specific electorate, which is why they generally do quite well in local elections.
However, at Westminster, if you are in power, you have to have the same policy for Yorkshire as in Suffolk and Dorset. Suddenly they have discovered this is far more difficult and that policies which go down well in some parts of the country are not liked elsewhere. The University fees issue is part of this; telling the young voters that they would not increase fees, without explaining to the taxpayers where the money would come from would have been a loser with one group or the other when implemented.

And as for AV, most people saw this as what it was, a sop to the LibDems who believed that it could increase their representation in parliament. Yes, changes to the electoral system are needed, as I've blogged before (equalisation of constituency sizes and restriction of postal voting), but AV is not one for which there has been any sign of public demand. If parliament had responded to public demand, the referendum would have been on withdrawal from the EU, because unless we do that, our Westminster votes will soon become worthless as the EU imposes more laws of their own.

As I said, I'm not too unhappy with the results.